High Strangeness: The Good, the Bad, and the Uncertain

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

The Good, the Bad, and the Uncertain

Two UFO sightings, in the same state, at the same hour of the night, only a month apart, involving lights moving through the night sky... You would think they would register about the same in MUFON's "Ballaster-Guasp Evaluation" that determines the likelihood that a UFO sighting actually happened, but you would be wrong.

One investigation involved a single mom and her son who sighted two glowing, pulsating ovals hovering in the night sky a mile from their apartment balcony before one shot off vertically and one shot straight up. The other investigation involved a man and his buddy standing around a campfire who sighted three star-like lights in an "arrowhead" formation zoom across the night sky. Both pretty interesting, both pretty compelling, but the mom and her son scored a 12.1% certainty rating while the two guys around the campfire only got a 4.2.

To make it clear, that means that in UFO-speak, the mom & son sighting has been officially deemed to be three times more likely to be authentic than the two guys around the fire sighting, and even though I investigated them both, I have no idea why.

The Vallee Category Chart: Campfire guy experienced an FB-1, while mom & son experienced an MA-1. You'd be surprised what a difference it makes to a trained UFOlogist!
To recap, the BGE looks at three factors determine the certainty of a UFO sighting: amount of information uncovered by the investigation (Information Quality Index); overall strangeness of the occurrence (Strangeness Index); and witness' personal data (Reliability Index). To give you an idea of how this tool hands out ratings, the mother scored high on the Reliability Index because she's going to college, while the campfire guy scored low because he's a laborer. Also, the fact that the mom and her son are related gave her a better Reliability Index than the campfire guy, because his friend was only a friend. Had they been brothers or cousins, they would have scored higher. But, had the mom and her son been co-workers, they would have scored higher still. Do you understand that? I sure don't.

Strange as that is, it's nothing compared to the Strangeness Index, which gives the mom & son sighting a huge score for involving "Anomalous movements," but gives the campfire guy sighting a low score for only involving "Anomalous appearance." Oh, sure, I could have checked off "Anomalous movements" for campfire guy's sighting, because it did streak across the night sky in only five seconds, but it moved horizontally only, never changed direction or speed, and really just behaved like a very fast airplane, and according to my MUFON training, that is not noteworthy behavior (see chart above). One of the objects sighted by the mom & son, however, shot off straight up into the night sky at a tremendous rate of speed. I call that "Anomalous."

My puzzling over this will have to wait, however, because I have received a strange voicemail message that has me just a little worried... I interviewed the campfire guy two nights ago, but last night I got a message from a woman claiming to be campfire guy's wife saying that, sure, we could set up the interview with her for next week Monday. What the...? I've listened to the message twice, and she doesn't sound like a robot or an alien, but agents of disinformation are known to be tricky rascals.

My gut tells me to not call her back, but the dogged truth-seeker in me is tempted to dial the number....


2 comments:

Beth said...

Serious question: I'm curious as to whether you would classify the lights you filmed at the Burlington Haunted Woods tour as Unknown-UAV or Unknown-Other?

Mark OC said...

Hi Beth, I would call the lights we saw that night as Unknown- Other, simply because there was no discernible shape or form to objects. I would not be comfortable calling what I saw that night a "vehicle."